'Demand' & 'Supply'

Factors in the Irish Catholic Church

Statistics in the Irish Church are more complex than they first appear, writes Brian Conway

One of the most frequently heard claims about the contemporary Irish Catholic Church is that it is facing a crisis in relation to its human resources and particularly with respect to the number of ordained priests available to minister the sacraments to the faithful. When the average priest gets up to deliver his homily on a Sunday morning Mass, he's invariably an overworked pastor.

But little close attention has been given to trends in the relationship between supply and demand factors in the Church over time. When we consider "supply" factors - for example, the number of diocesan priests - in relation to "demand" factors - for example, the number of practising Catholics and the number of Catholics availing of the sacraments of the Church - the story is not as straightforward or as simple as is sometimes assumed.

Trends

Drawing on data from denominational sources including the Irish Catholic Directory and Annuario Pontificio, prior sociological research, and the Census of Population, I looked at trends and patterns in key supply and demand factors in the Church. I found that while there has been a decline in the aggregate number of diocesan priests, this has been accompanied by a decline in the number of Catholics attending Mass as well as a less well-known decline in the proportion of Catholics availing of the sacraments of the Church including confession, baptism and marriage and in the number of Catholic schools. For most of these indicators of Catholic identity, I use 1974 as the "baseline" year - with the exception of the data relating to Catholic school provision - against which to compare data for 2006-2008. 1974 was chosen as the baseline year because of the availability of data about Mass attendance and participation in the Church's sacraments from this year on. What emerges is a story about decline across the Church rather than just in terms of its clergy. Considered in this context, claims about a priest availability ''crisis" may be somewhat overstated.

The day-to-day job of a diocesan priest encompasses a wide range of activities and tasks - saying Mass, visiting the sick, consoling the bereaved, and so forth. Indeed, most of a priest's time is taken up with administering the various sacraments of the Church - baptism, marriage, confession, and so forth - officiating at Mass, or serving as chaplain or manager of the local parish school. Other non-sacramental work involves such things as homily preparation, administration, prayer, and parish visitation. Taken together, these tasks represent the principal demands on a priest's time. Looking at evidence about how many Catholics participate in these sacraments, rituals, and services over time is one way of gauging changing 'demand for the Church resources provided by priests and, consequently, of how much of a claim people make on the finite time of their local priest. Let's take a closer look at the data.

The demand

Irish Catholics are not as 'Catholic' as they once were. We know from sociological studies going back to the early 1970s that there has been a decline in Mass attendance. But this decline extends to other areas as well - we know too from social survey data that fewer Catholics receive Holy Communion and attend confession regularly (see Table I).

It should be noted that given people's tendency to overstate their participation in the major rituals and sacraments of the Church when asked about it in social surveys, it may well be that the percentage decline in 'demand' in relation to going to confession, receiving Holy Communion, and attending Mass is actually greater than the empirical data suggests and is running further ahead of the percentage change in 'supply' than we think.

From other data sources one can put together a picture of how many Catholics avail of the other sacraments of the Church such as baptism and marriage. In 1974 (see Table II), there were 78,980 baptisms in the Church. By contrast, in 2006 the number declined to 65,744. A similar trend emerges with respect to the number of marriages. In 1975 there were 20,966 marriages in the Catholic Church compared to 16,212 in 2006. In addition, in 1975, 97% of marriages took place within the Catholic Church compared to 73% of marriages in 2006.

One other important service provided by priests is administering at funerals. To my knowledge, no reliable data exists about the number of Catholic funerals over time. In the absence of such data, one must turn to evidence about death rates from the census that tell us how many people die in the average year now compared to the 1970s. This can serve as a proxy measure of "demand" for funerals though admittedly the data does not differentiate people by religious affiliation. Table III reports data about average annual death rates for two time periods - 1971-1979 and 2002-2006. In the 1971-1976 time period, an average of 33,000 people died each year compared to 28,000 in the 2002-2006 time period. The difference between the two time periods represents a 15% decline in the death rate. This means that fewer funerals take place in the average year now compared to the 1970s.

Because of the importance of schools in socialising young people into the Catholic faith, diocesan priests also typically serve as patrons, managers, or chaplains in Catholic-run schools at both primary and secondary level in addition to their other parish pastoral duties. Evidence about the numbers of these schools and the enrolment in them is a proxy indicator of "demand" for the time devoted by priests to educational provision.

Table IV presents data about trends in the number of Catholic primary and secondary schools in 1982 and 2007 as well as the number of children enrolled in them. Enrolment has declined at primary level but not at secondary level.

More importantly, though, the number of Catholic schools has shown a decline-by 10 percent in the case of primary schools and by 14pc in the case of secondary schools. This means that, compared to 1982, there are fewer Catholic schools in need of a priest to serve as chaplain, patron, or school board manager.

The picture that emerges from this - and contrary to the common-sense view - is that "demand" in the Church has declined in virtually all the major sacraments of the Church - there are simpler fewer people than before who wish to participate in the Church and avail of the religious services it provides. Let's turn now to the "supply" picture in terms of the numbers engaged in actually providing these services.

Supply picture

The supply picture is also clear enough (see Table V). From 1974 to the mid-2000s, there has been a decline in the number of diocesan priests available to the Church to minister in different parishes and to provide the sacraments. Table V shows that between 1974 and 2006, the number of priests in Ireland declined by a fifth.

Supply /Demand

This article has examined trends in participation by Irish Catholics in the major sacraments of the church and in the number of priests available to provide these sacraments and it does this by comparing data relating to the early 1970s with that in the mid-2000s. The claim that "we've much fewer priests than before" is true but so also is the "fewer people now are practicing Catholics" claim. So how does the supply picture look when placed against what we know about the demand picture?

The decline in "supply" factors has been significantly less than the decline in "demand" factors but in some cases only marginally less - there has been a 20pc decline in the number of diocesan priests in the 1974-2006 time period compared to a 23pc decline in receipt of Holy Communion, a 38pc decline in participation in Confession, and a 48pc decline in Mass attendance over the same time period. Put another way, there are about a fifth as many priests available now to administer these sacraments compared to over 35 years ago but, at the same time, there has been a decline of approximately one quarter of people (in the case of receipt of Holy Communion) just above one third (in the case of going to Confession), and very close to a half (in respect of attending Mass) availing of these sacraments. Additionally, fewer church baptisms and marriages took place in 2006 compared to 1974, and there are fewer Catholic primary and secondary schools now compared to the early 1980s. When considered in this context, the priest shortage is not as acute as one might assume. The headline message is clear: presbyteries are not as full as before but neither are churches.

Brian Conway is a sociologist at NUI Maynooth.

Table V: Number of Catholic Diocesan Priests in Ireland, 1974 and 2006

1974 2006                                           % Change

Priests 3,894                  3,078                 -20

Source: Data for 2006 come from Council for Research and Development Factsheet - Diocesan Priests in Ireland 2006; Data for 1974 come from Irish Catholic Directory.

Table I: Percentage Distribution of Catholics Going to Confession, Receiving Holy Communion, and Attending Mass, 1974 and 2007/8

1974 2007/8                                                     % Change

Confession (monthly) 47                    9                    -38

Holy Communion (monthly) 66         3                     -23

Mass Attendance (weekly) 91            43                  -48

Source: MacGreil & Rhatigan, 2009, p. 19.

Table II: Annual Number of Baptisms and Marriages in the Catholic Church, 1974 and 2006

1974/75 2006                                      % Change

Baptisms 78,980            65,744             -17

Marriages 20,966           16,212             -22

Source: Baptism data for 1974 and 2006 come from Annuario Pontificio. Marriage data for 1975 come from the Irish Catholic Directory and from the Census of Population for 2006.

Table III: Average Annual Death Rate (in 1000s), 1971-1979 and 2002-2006

1971-1976 2002-2006                       % Change

Death rate 33 28                                              -15

Census: Census of Population 2006.

Table IV: Trends in Catholic Primary and Secondary School Provision, 1982 and 2007

Primary Schools 1982 2007                                       % Change

Number 3,803                      3,434                                       -10

Enrolment 486,408            369,536                                    -24

Secondary Schools

Number 897                                767                                    -14

Enrolment 266,938            272,831                                     +2

Source: Irish Catholic Directory.

References

Census of Population http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/vitalstats/current/marriages.pdf 

Council for Research and Development Factsheet - Diocesan Priests in Ireland 2006 (http://www.catholicbishops.ie/images/stories/cco_publications/researchan...)

MacGréil, Micheal, and Rhatigan, Fergal (2009) The Challenge of Indifference: A Need for Religious Revival in Ireland. Maynooth: Survey and Research Unit, Department of Sociology, NUI Maynooth.