A number of vacancies in the College of Cardinals, the powerful body that will elect his successor, may prompt Pope Benedict to announce some new promotions, writes Michael Kelly

It'll soon be five years since Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger was elected as the 264th successor of St Peter. In those five years, the German Pontiff has already had two opportunities to influence the College of Cardinals that will elect his successor by appointing 38 new cardinals (eight over the age of 80 when appointed and as such ineligible to vote in a Papal Conclave).

It is now over two years since the last consistory to create new cardinals and the death of a number of senior prelates, coupled with the fact that others lose their vote once they turn 80, means that the Pope will have to consider a wave of new appointments sooner rather than later. Add to this the fact that a number of prominent Churchmen around the world, leading dioceses that usually come with a cardinal's red hat, are awaiting promotion, and a consistory in 2010 seems a certainty.

Today, there are 112 cardinal electors and a total of 182 cardinals overall.

Only 30 of those 112 current cardinal electors were created by Pope Benedict XVI, all of the remaining were created by Pope John Paul II during his long Pontificate.

Vacancies

This leaves eight vacancies among the electors (assuming that Pope Benedict XVI sticks to Pope Paul VI's limit of 120 cardinal electors, John Paul II frequently ignored the rule and the number of cardinals eligible to vote was frequently over the 120 limit).

Over the next number of months, that number will rise dramatically as eleven more cardinals celebrate their eightieth birthday. Thus, by the end of 2010, there will be a grand total of 19 open slots. Of the 11 cardinals who lose their vote this year as they reach 80, all were created by Pope John Paul II.

To break it down, if the Pope decides on a consistory early in 2010, by the end of March there will be a total of 11 slots open. But, if he opts for a later date that reaches 18 total slots available by the middle of November when Cardinal Janis Pujats turns 80.

So, a mid-summer or autumn consistory seems most likely. And to be more specific, the last week of November seems like a good time.

So, assuming that my speculation is correct, which senior prelates are likely to get the nod?

The recently-appointed head of the Vatican's Congregation for the Causes of Saints and a close confidant of Benedict XVI, Archbishop Angelo Amato, is a shoo-in to be promoted to the College of Cardinals.

The provisions of the Apostolic Constitution Pastor Bonus require that prelates appointed to lead Vatican congregations are cardinals, or, if they are not, they must be elevated at the next consistory.

As a former colleague of Pope Benedict XVI in the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith, Amato is likely to get the honour of being number one on the list of new cardinals and the privilege of addressing the Pope on behalf of all the new cardinals at the public consistory.

Outspoken American Archbishop Raymond Burke must surely also be on the list. As Prefect of the Apostolic Signatura, he is the Church's most senior legal official, and while in the past non-cardinals have held the post, never have they not been eventually elevated to the Sacred College. However, Burke's elevation will raise more than a few eyebrows in his home country, where some bishops have been furious with his vocal political opinions emanating from Rome during the 2008 US Presidential elections.

There are also a number of senior Vatican officials who are not yet cardinals but head of departments normally led by a cardinal. Archbishops Gianfranco Ravasi (Pontifical Council for Culture); Francesco Coccopalmerio (Council for legislative texts) and Antonio Maria VegliÊ (Council for Migrants) will all be expecting to get the Papal nod of approval.

Outside of the Curia, the current incumbent in Pope Benedict's previous Munich Archdiocese, Archbishop Reinhard Marx is certain to be promoted.

In 2007, a notable omission was Paolo Romeo, Archbishop of Palermo. Archbishop Romeo was appointed to Palermo earlier that year after a distinguished career as a Vatican diplomat, a career which came to a fitting end with his final appointment as Nuncio to Italy and San Marino, one of the most prestigious appointments in the gift of the Cardinal Secretary of State. It scarcely seems likely he will be passed over again, especially as Cardinal Archbishop-Emeritus Salvatore De Giorgi will turn 80 in September.

As well as Archbishop Burke, the United States is likely to see at least one more red hat. Throughout the 20th Century, the single largest contributor to Vatican finances has been the sprawling Archdiocese of New York. For this reason alone, it seems highly likely that her new Archbishop, Timothy Dolan, can be sure of elevation.

Right to vote

In Washington DC, meanwhile, traditionally a see associated with a red hat, the retired Cardinal Thedore McCarrick will lose his right to vote when he turns 80 in July. This strengthens the position of Archbishop Donald Wuerl who was appointed as McCarrick's successor in 2006.

The Archdiocese of Westminister, as head of the Catholic Church in England and Wales, is traditionally elevated to the College of Cardinals. Given the fact that Pope Benedict is due to visit Britain later this year, it seems likely that the current incumbent Archbishop Vincent Nichols will join the ranks of the College of Cardinals. By August of this year, his predecessor Cormac Murphy-O'Connor will be 78 and as such only two years away from losing his right to vote.

It's been clear in the Church in recent years that the balance of power is shifting (albeit it slowly) to the south.

Latin American, Africa and Asia are increasingly becoming powerhouses for the global Church. In Brazil, there is a powerful contender for promotion in the current Archbishop of Rio de Janeiro, Orani Joâo Tempesta. However, this may be unlikely given that Rio currently has two retired Cardinals one of whom is eligible to vote in a potential conclave until late 2012.

The promotion of Cardinal Peter Turkson to the head of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace means that the Pope is likely to turn to an African diocese for at least one new cardinal.

It is unlikely too that Asia will be passed over for a new cardinal. Notably, Japan is currently without a serving member of the College of Cardinals.