I’ve been interviewed a number of times today by various radio and television channels about the visit of Pope Benedict XVI to Great Britain.

While there’s been speculation about the visit for months, the Pope himself confirmed the trip this morning during his speech to the bishops of England and Wales who are in Rome for their five-yearly ad limina visit to the Holy See.

When the speculation first emerged many commentators, including Catholic ommentators who ought to know better, spoke confidently of their belief that the Pope would visit Northern Ireland during his visit to Britain. At the time, I poured cold water on the speculation and repeated that analysis in today’s interviews.

My analysis now seems correct as it is increasingly obvious that the North will not be part of Benedict XVI’s schedule. The principal reason? Catholic sensebilities in Northern Ireland.

It’s a political fact that the overwhelming majority of Catholics in the North have Irish nationalist sensebilities (I.e. they want, eventually, to see Northern Ireland united with the southern State in a 32-county Irish Republic). The sight of the Pope, the head of the Catholic Church, being welcomed to the North by a member of the British Royal Family and the trappings of the British State may just be too much for northern Catholics to stomach. Such a scenario could seriously damage the standing of the Church (and the Pope) among the faithful in the North.

Traditionally the Holy See has also adopted a one-island approach to Ireland (accepting the de facto partition of the island, but doing little or nothing that might make that situation appear to be permanent). Northern Ireland comes under the jurisdiction of the Papal Nuncio in Dublin rather than his counterpart in London which is the case with every other state.

The mood music in Northern Ireland is also not favourable to a Papal visit. First Minister Peter Robinson has enough to deal with keeping his own hardliners on board without having to juggle a visit by the head of the Catholic Church (considered the anti-Christ by many fundamentalist Ulster Protestants).